The Oklahoma City Thunder (14-28) travel to American Airlines Center Monday to take on the Dallas Mavericks (24-19). Tip-off is scheduled for 8:30 p.m. ET. Below, we look at the Thunder vs. Mavericks odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.
The Thunder might not have a good record, sitting 14th in the Western Conference, but they cover at the second-highest rate in the NBA with a 27-14-1 ATS record. The Thunder are led by G Shai Gilgeous-Alexander‘s 22.4 points per game.
They battle another strong backcourt in Dallas with potential MVP Luka Doncic. The Mavericks are also among the 13 teams covering at over a 50% rate at 23-20 ATS. The Mavs have covered six of their last seven games.
Thunder at Mavericks odds, spread and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:15 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Thunder +570 (bet $100 to win $570) | Mavericks -900 (bet $900 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Thunder +11.5 (-115) | Mavericks -11.5 (-107)
- Over/Under (O/U): 209.5 (O: -115 | U: -107)
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Thunder at Mavericks key injuries
- G Kenrich Williams (health and safety protocols) out
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Thunder at Mavericks odds, lines, picks and predictions
Mavericks 106, Thunder 101
PASS on the money line. I like the Mavericks at home but there is no value to bet them at -900. If anything, the Thunder at +570 have some, yet marginal, value.
BET on the THUNDER +11.5 (-115).
The Thunder may not win games, but they compete, and that’s why they’ve been a covering machine. OKC is 13-7 ATS as a road underdog.
The Mavericks have the league’s second-best turnover rate, and while the Thunder don’t create many turnovers they still have a defensive rating in the top half of the league. The Thunder should be able to impact Doncic’s style of play with sizeable defensive-minded guard Lu Dort.
Oklahoma City’s weak point defensively is in their interior defense, but that’s not where the Mavs offense thrives. Dallas ranks 28th in points in the paint. Considering the premier defense the Thunder have, I expect them to be able to limit the Dallas offense and hold the game within single digits.
“LEAN” to the UNDER 209.5 (-107).
I don’t love Unders this low, but the Mavericks play at the second-slowest pace in the NBA.
They should dictate the pace and are just 4-15-1 O/U at home. The Thunder, on the other hand, rank dead last in true shooting percentage and have struggled to score efficiently.
Given that both teams have a defensive rating in the top half of the league, a defensive-minded game with few points should be what we see Monday evening.
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